Go with your gut says researcher

Research shows intuition is critical in farmers' decision making, according to Dr Peter Nuthall of Lincoln University, New Zealand.

Dr Nuthall, a long-time researcher in farm management at the University, surveyed a number of successful farmers to discover how they made their farming decisions. He was intrigued when his research showed that the famers he studied made grazing decisions using their own mental processes rather than formal analytical tools. This was despite their being a number of resources available to help them with this.

Dr Nuthall found that there was a variety of intuitive skills used by farmers to make these decisions but even in this age of computers, and with programs available, they seldom employed formal systems for this task. Instead, they developed mental ‘expert systems’ to make their feed management decisions.  The term ‘expert system’ refers to a branch of Artificial Intelligence in which a computer program attempts to mimic an expert.

“Each farm and farmer was unique and this has made it hard for programmers to develop systems suitable for many farmers,” said Dr Nuthall.

In New Zealand, Australia, and many other countries, a large percentage of farmers earn their income through grazing animals on pastures of various types, both native and introduced.

In other than simple herding systems, successful grazing management is often complex with fine lines between the achievement of low and high output. “However, doing the right thing at the right time leads to higher profit,” said Dr Nuthall.

“An exciting find from the research was that intuitive skills were not something some people have and others don’t. I discovered that intuition has a structure and can be improved with practice using various review and mentoring systems. For this to work the mentors must be trusted people because it is necessary to consider every last detail about the farms and farming systems, including confidential material, as all aspects have an influence in making the correct decision.

“What the farmers are doing is building up their own personalised intuitive expert system,” said Dr Nuthall.

Intuition works through careful and regular observation of all critical factors both on and off the farm. Pattern matching then comes into play through the brain searching experience to come up with ‘patterns’,  the current problem and a successful decision. This ultimately leads to greater farm profits.   

“There is also evidence from around the world that variations in profit occur from different farmers’ managerial ability, despite using the same basic animal production systems in the same environment.

“Ultimately efficient grazing is often important to national income,” said Dr Nuthall.

For New Zealand, grazing-based export income was 36.9% of total exports in 2009, with  all primary production being 55.9% of the total exports of NZ$36.9 billion.

“In developing countries primary production exports are often even more important,” said Dr Nuthall 

Prospect of Dust Bowl 2 stalks America

American Geosciences Institute’s magazine Earth says prospects for cattle ranchers and farmers in the American Southwest appear grim.

Researchers predict that over the next two or three decades the area from West Texas to New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado and on into Southern California, Nevada and Utah will transition to a climate that may make the 1930s Dust Bowl seem mild and brief.

The less than rosy forecast comes at a time when the region is already experiencing giant dust storms in Arizona, and Texas is in the grip of an extreme, three-year drought. Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah and other states are also experiencing drought conditions.

The 1930s Dust Bowl saw more than 20 million hectares of farmland lost soil to airborne dust.

The researchers say the region’s problem now is that rising temperatures will contribute directly and indirectly to there being more dust in the air. Then, persistent droughts, increasingly violent and variable weather patterns, urban and suburban development and even off-road recreational vehicle usage threaten to shroud the West in dust.

Food price volatility may increase

10 October 2011, Rome - Food price volatility featuring high prices is likely to continue and possibly increase, making poor farmers, consumers and countries more vulnerable to poverty and food insecurity, the United Nations' three Rome-based agencies said in the global hunger report published today.  

Small, import-dependent countries, particularly in Africa, are especially at risk.  Many of them still face severe problems following the world food and economic crises of 2006-2008, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and the World Food Programme (WFP) said in "The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2011" (SOFI), an annual flagship report which they jointly produced this year.

Such crises, including in the Horn of Africa, "are challenging our efforts to achieve the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of reducing the proportion of people who suffer from hunger by half in  2015," the heads of the three agencies — Jacques Diouf of FAO, Kanayo F. Nwanze of IFAD and Josette Sheeran of WFP — warned in a preface to the report.  

Action Plan on Food Price Volatility and Agriculture

The following link will take you to an Issue Brief entitled, “An Action Plan on Food Price Volatility and Agriculture: What to Expect from the G-20 Summit”, authored by Robert Paarlberg, B. F. Johnson Professor of Political Science at Wellesley College and Adjunct Professor of Public Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School.


This is the second in a series of Issue Briefs commissioned by the Global Agricultural Development Initiative. Issues Briefs offer factual and analytical information and resources to policymakers and other non-governmental stakeholders to advance understanding of the potential implications of major developments, events, and decisions on U.S. agricultural development and food security policy.


Click here to read the full Issue Brief (PDF).

Agriculture and health go hand-in-hand

A new report released by The Chicago Council on Global Affairs calls on the agriculture and food sectors to play a role in mitigating the global rise in noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). Bringing Agriculture to the Table: How Agriculture and Food Policy can Play a Role in Preventing Chronic Disease (PDF), which was presented before this morning’s opening of the UN High-Level Meeting on NCDs, identifies new opportunities for those in heath and agriculture to work together to promote better health. 





The report was prepared by Dr. Rachel Nugent, University of Washington and project chair for the Chicago Council. The project was guided by an advisory panel of noted agriculture and health experts from academia, private sector and international organizations.


Health solutions to prevent noncommunicable diseases such as heart disease, lung disease, cancer and diabetes, have traditionally left out the agriculture and food sector. The report finds, however, that if the agriculture and food sector works more closely with the health sector, the rising prevalence of diet-related NCDs and early deaths can be reduced through better nutrition and healthier lifestyles. The report points out that the global food system has evolved over the past century to deliver a number of benefits—greater choice for consumers, greater nutritional diversity and lower cost. But, it asserts that agriculture must offer consumers a better mix of locally available, less-processed, and culturally appropriate items that constitute a healthy diet.  

More effort needed in Africa - FAO

FAO has called for increased efforts to stem the food crisis in the Horn of Africa as famine spread to a sixth area of Somalia, threatening  750 000 people with starving to death in the next four months.

Latest data released yesterday by the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit for Somalia (FSNAU), which is managed by FAO in close collaboration with USAID's Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), indicated that famine has spread to Bay region, one of Somalia's most productive areas. Five other regions had previously been declared in a state of famine.

Together with ongoing crises in the rest of the country, the number of Somalis in need of humanitarian assistance has increased from 2.4 million to 4 million in the last eight months, with 3 million of them in the country's south.

Bleak picture

"Though these figures paint a bleak picture for Somalia, there is a window of opportunity for the humanitarian community to stop and reverse this undesirable trend by supporting farmers and herders in addition to other emergency interventions," Luca Alinovi, FAO's Officer in Charge for Somalia, told a press conference in Nairobi.

Bay region is a breadbasket for Somalia, producing over 80 percent of the country's sorghum. Record levels of acute malnutrition have been registered there, with 58 percent of children under five acutely malnourished, and a crude death of more than two deaths per 10 000 per day.

Bay region joins five other areas hit by famine including Bakool agropastoral communities in Lower Shabelle region, the agropastoral areas of Balcad and Cadale districts of Middle Shabelle, the Afgoye corridor IDP settlement, and the Mogadishu IDP community.

Widespread famine

Despite current interventions, projections indicate that famine will become widespread throughout southern Somalia by the end of 2011.

"In the current food security situation, famine conditions are expected to spread to agropastoral populations in Gedo Hiran Middle Shabelle and Juba regions and the riverine populations of Juba and Gedo in the coming four months," said Grainne Moloney, FSNAU's Chief Technical Adviser.

Post-harvest finding showed this year's cereal crop to be the lowest in 17 years. Dwindling stocks of local cereals have sent cereal prices soaring 300 percent over the last year and nearly half a million acutely malnourished children across Somalia require urgent nutritional treatment.

FAO has appealed for $70 million for Somalia to provide agricultural emergency assistance for one million farmers and herders. With increasing access to many parts of southern Somalia, FAO is currently carrying out emergency interventions and is opening two new offices in Mogadishu and Dolo and several suboffices in each region.

Improved seeds

"We have already embarked on mass production of improved seeds and procured 5 000 tonnes of fertilizer, among other farm inputs, in preparation for the next planting season from October to December," said Alinovi.  FAO's current interventions are benefiting of over one million people in Somalia's most affected regions.

FAO has received confirmed donations of $20 million from the United Nations' Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF), the Common Humanitarian Fund (CHF), Australia, Spain, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, and another $21 million in pledges from the European Commission - Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection (ECHO), the United States of America, Belgium and the World Bank. Talks with other countries are ongoing.

Famine is classified using a tool called the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC). FSNAU and FEWS NET adhere to the IPC standards when declaring a famine on the basis of at least  three criteria being present: severe lack of food access for 20 percent of the population, acute malnutrition exceeding 30 percent and a Crude Death Rate exceeding two deaths per 10 000 population per day.

The current crisis affects the whole Horn of Africa region including the northern part of Kenya and southern parts of Ethiopia and Djibouti where large areas are classified as being in a state of humanitarian emergency.  

Food crisis cuts calorie consumption

By IFPRI - From 2006 to 2008, the world experienced a dramatic increase in global food prices which especially affected the poor, whose diets depend on staple commodities such as maize, rice, and wheat. 

Studies in Latin America show urban and rural households have cut their calorie intake to cope with the price shock.

Data from national household surveys in Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, Haiti, Ecuador, and Peru found that each country experienced an 8% average reduction in calorie intake after the food price crisis.

Read more: http://bit.ly/mYcAKb