Tuesday, 7 February 2012

Food prices nearly back to 2008 peak

Global food prices continue to rise, according to The World Bank’s food price index, which increased by 15% between October 2010 and January 2011 and is only 3% below its 2008 peak.

The last six months have seen sharp increases in the global prices of wheat, maize, sugar and edible oils, with a relatively smaller increase in rice prices. Higher global wheat prices have fed into significant increases in local wheat prices in many countries.



Higher maize, sugar, and oil prices have contributed to increase the costs of various types of food, though local maize prices have largely been stable in Sub- Saharan Africa. Local rice prices have increased in line with global prices in some large rice-consuming Asian countries.

The World Bank says these food price rises create macro vulnerabilities, particularly for countries with a high share of food imports and limited fiscal space, as well as increases in poverty. Estimates of those who fall into, and move out of, poverty as a result of price rises since June 2010 show there is a net increase in extreme poverty of about 44 million people in low- and middle-income countries.

“In the immediate term,” reports the Bank, “it is important to ensure that further increases in poverty are curtailed by taking measures that calm jittery markets and by scaling up safety net and nutritional programs. Investments in raising environmentally sustainable agricultural productivity, better risk-management tools, less food intensive biofuel technologies, and climate change adaptation measures are all necessary over the medium term to mitigate the impact of expected food price volatility on the most vulnerable.”

New index to boost women's role in agriculture

The United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) are cooperating to develop a Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index to measure women’s roles and engagement in the agriculture sector.
Women are a primary focus of the US Government Feed the Future (FTF) Initiative – a global hunger and food security initiative that aims to reduce poverty and under-nutrition. A principal objective of FTF is to “promote inclusive agricultural sector growth”. FTF aims to improve women’s roles and engagement throughout the various areas of the agriculture sector, as it grows in both quantity and quality, and to “operationalize” that improvement by measuring change in the following domains:
·         Women’s role in household decision making around agricultural production
·         Women’s access to productive capital
·         Women’s control of income
·         Women’s individual leadership and influence in the community
·         Women’s time allocations.

The public version is expected to be available in March 2012.  (For more information on the method, see http://www.ophi.org.uk/research/multidimensional-poverty/alkire-foster-m…).

About the Index partners:

Sunday, 5 February 2012

A bit more commitment please

The developed world's level of commitment shown to the future of humanity leaves something to be desired.

Philanthropist Bill Gates recently tried to remind G20 leaders at Cannes not to forget the world's poor and to resist the urge (or voter pressure) to cut aid budgets. Aid in developed countries is already less than 1% of GDP, yet as Gates points out, many aid-cynics believe that is already too much.

Complacency and bad policy making has led to constant cuts to agricultural research too. The world's seven main crops now attract just US$3 billion a year in research funding -- a pittance given the importance of those crops to human survival, and given the rapidly changing supply and demand equation. Yield growth has been outpaced by population growth, and the need for a second Green Revolution seems to have so far escaped the G20 big hitters.

Gates' annual letter makes a strong case for more aid spending [http://www.gatesfoundation.org/annual-letter/2012/Pages/home-en.aspx], for redeploying the genomics tools developed in human medicine to agricultural development, and he makes a strong case for viewing aid for developing nations as necessary for humanity as whole.


"We can help poor farmers
sustainably increase their
productivity so they can feed
themselves and their families.
But that will only happen if we
prioritize agricultural innovation."
- bill gates

Thursday, 12 January 2012

Food prices drop but trend hard to pick

Food prices fell in December 2011 with the FAO Food Price Index dropping 2.4 percent, or five points from November, FAO said today.

At its new level of 211 points, the Index was 11.3 percent (27 points) below its peak in February 2011.

The decline was driven by sharp falls in international prices of cereals, sugar and oils due to bumper 2011 crops coupled with slowing demand and a stronger US dollar. Most commodities were affected.

However, although prices dropped steadily in the second half of 2011, the Index averaged 228 points in 2011 — the highest average since FAO started measuring international food prices in 1990. The previous high was in 2008 at 200 points.

A period of uncertainty

Commenting on the new figures, FAO Senior Grains Economist Abdolreza Abbassian said that it was difficult to make any firm prediction on price trends for the coming months.

“International prices of many food commodities have declined in recent months, but given the uncertainties over the global economy, currency and energy markets, unpredictable prospects lie ahead,” Abbassian said.

Among the principal commodities, cereal prices registered the biggest fall, with the FAO Cereal Price Index dropping 4.8 percent to 218 points in December. Record crops and an improved supply outlook sent prices of major cereals declining significantly. Maize prices fell 6 percent, wheat 4 percent and rice 3 percent. In 2011, the FAO cereal price index averaged 247 points, up some 35 percent from 2010 and the highest since the 1970s.

Oils and fats down

The FAO Oils and Fats Price Index stood at 227 points in December, down 3 percent from November and well below the level of 264 points one year ago. Larger than expected overall supplies of vegetable oil led to a rise in stocks (notably palm and sunflower oil), which, together with poor global demand for soybeans, deflated prices.

The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 179 points, slightly down compared with November. The decline was mainly driven by pig meat, whose price dropped by 2.2 percent, with sheep meat also receding somewhat. By contrast, poultry and bovine meat prices recorded mild gains. On an annual basis, meat prices in 2011 were 16 percent higher than in 2010.

Dairy products mostly up

The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 202 points, almost unchanged from November. All dairy products were up slightly with the exception of butter, which dropped by 1 percent. Over the whole year, dairy products were on average 10 percent dearer than in 2010, with particularly strong gains witnessed for skim milk powder and casein, which gained 17 percent each. More modest increases were seen for butter and whole milk powder prices, which progressed by 11 percent, and cheese, by 8 percent.

The FAO Sugar Price Index declined for the fifth consecutive month to 327 points in December, down 4 percent from November and 18 percent from its July 2011 peak. The Index’s weakness in recent months mostly reflects expectations of a large world production surplus over the new season, on the back of good harvests in India, the European Union, Thailand and the Russian Federation.  
 

Wednesday, 11 January 2012

Combined resource to tackle food issues

In January 2012 IFPRI is launching two major research programs. These CGIAR Research Programs (CRPs), led by IFPRI, will bring together researchers from across the CGIAR centers to address some of the most pressing problems facing the global food system.

The first of these two programs—Policies, Institutions, and Markets to Strengthen Food Security and Incomes for the Rural Poor, also known as CRP2—will identify the policies and institutions that will enable rural smallholder producers, particularly women, to increase their incomes through better links with markets and equitable access to services and assets. Failures related to policies, institutions, and markets are a major impediment to increasing agricultural growth in the developing world, where a majority of people depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. 
The second program—Agriculture for Improved Nutrition and Health, also known as CRP4—aims to improve the nutrition and health of poor people by exploiting the many synergies between agriculture, nutrition, and health. This program will focus on research in four key areas: value chains, biofortification, control of agriculture-associated diseases, and integrated agriculture, nutrition, and health development programs and policies. John McDermott has been named Director of CRP 4.

Tuesday, 10 January 2012

New FAO boss talks the talk

Two days after taking over, FAO's new Director-General José Graziano da Silva told his inaugural press conference that the total elimination of hunger and undernourishment from the world will be his top priority.

Graziano da Silva told journalists that with a term in office of only three and a half years there was no time to lose. FAO would begin by scaling up its support to a number of low-income, food deficit countries, especially those facing prolonged crises.

"Ending hunger requires the commitment of everyone: neither FAO nor any other agency or government will win this war alone", said Graziano da Silva, adding that he wanted to work "in the most transparent and democratic way" with member countries, United Nations agencies the private sector, civil society and other stakeholders.

Hunger eradication was the first of five strategic priorities he intended to pursue at FAO, Graziano da Silva said. The others were: move towards more sustainable systems of food production and consumption; achieve greater fairness in the global management of food; complete FAO's reform and decentralization; and expand South-South cooperation and other partnerships. 

Sunday, 13 November 2011

Go with your gut says researcher

Research shows intuition is critical in farmers' decision making, according to Dr Peter Nuthall of Lincoln University, New Zealand.

Dr Nuthall, a long-time researcher in farm management at the University, surveyed a number of successful farmers to discover how they made their farming decisions. He was intrigued when his research showed that the famers he studied made grazing decisions using their own mental processes rather than formal analytical tools. This was despite their being a number of resources available to help them with this.

Dr Nuthall found that there was a variety of intuitive skills used by farmers to make these decisions but even in this age of computers, and with programs available, they seldom employed formal systems for this task. Instead, they developed mental ‘expert systems’ to make their feed management decisions.  The term ‘expert system’ refers to a branch of Artificial Intelligence in which a computer program attempts to mimic an expert.

“Each farm and farmer was unique and this has made it hard for programmers to develop systems suitable for many farmers,” said Dr Nuthall.

In New Zealand, Australia, and many other countries, a large percentage of farmers earn their income through grazing animals on pastures of various types, both native and introduced.

In other than simple herding systems, successful grazing management is often complex with fine lines between the achievement of low and high output. “However, doing the right thing at the right time leads to higher profit,” said Dr Nuthall.

“An exciting find from the research was that intuitive skills were not something some people have and others don’t. I discovered that intuition has a structure and can be improved with practice using various review and mentoring systems. For this to work the mentors must be trusted people because it is necessary to consider every last detail about the farms and farming systems, including confidential material, as all aspects have an influence in making the correct decision.

“What the farmers are doing is building up their own personalised intuitive expert system,” said Dr Nuthall.

Intuition works through careful and regular observation of all critical factors both on and off the farm. Pattern matching then comes into play through the brain searching experience to come up with ‘patterns’,  the current problem and a successful decision. This ultimately leads to greater farm profits.   

“There is also evidence from around the world that variations in profit occur from different farmers’ managerial ability, despite using the same basic animal production systems in the same environment.

“Ultimately efficient grazing is often important to national income,” said Dr Nuthall.

For New Zealand, grazing-based export income was 36.9% of total exports in 2009, with  all primary production being 55.9% of the total exports of NZ$36.9 billion.

“In developing countries primary production exports are often even more important,” said Dr Nuthall