Weather slams grain production

Global rice paddy production for 2012 is forecast to drop by 7.8 million tonnes due to lower than normal rainfall in India.

However, world output will still be slightly above levels achieved in 2011, according to the July 2012 issue of the Rice Market Monitor released by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations.

Global paddy production should reach 724.5 million tonnes (483.1 million tonnes milled), compared with the original forecast in April of 732.3 million tonnes (488.2 million tonnes milled).  The downward revision was mainly due to a 22 percent lower-than-average monsoon rainfall in India through mid-July, which is likely to reduce output in the country this season. Production forecasts were also lowered for Cambodia, Taiwan, North and South Korea and Nepal, all of which may see lower production in 2012.

In sharp contrast with trends observed in the maize and wheat markets, which have been rocked by widespread drought in the US, rice prices have remained surprisingly stable after gaining 2 percent in May. Amid abundant rice supplies and stocks , the likelihood of a strong price rebound in coming months is low, but the future of rice prices remains uncertain. Meanwhile, corn, wheat and similar grains have soared in price as the US drought maintains its grip.

Crop Prospects and Food Situation released

FAO today forecast that 2012 world wheat production will be the second highest on record at 690 million tonnes and also announced that  international food prices rose one percent in February —  the second increase in two months. 

Published today, FAO’s quarterly Crop Prospects and Food Situation report forecast a 2012 wheat crop 10 million tonnes or 1.4 percent down from the record 2011 harvest but still well above the average of the past five years. 

Although plantings have increased or are forecast to increase in many countries this year in response to continuing strong prices, a return to normal yields is expected in areas where record highs were achieved last year, the report said. But it was still too early for a global forecast of 2012 cereal output, it added.

Impact of cold weather

Crop Prospects also noted a firming of  international cereal prices in recent weeks due to tightening current wheat supplies and concerns over the impact of severe cold weather in Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States.

Turning to the situation at regional level, the report said that adverse weather in West Africa caused a sharp drop in cereal and pasture production in large parts of the Sahel. This, combined with high food prices and civil strife, has led to high food insecurity and increased malnutrition in several countries, notably in Niger, Chad, Mauritania, Mali and Burkina Faso.

In the Near East, food security has deteriorated in the Syrian Arab Republic and Yemen following civil conflict in the two countries. In Syria about 1.4 million people have become food insecure while thousands of families have been forced to flee their homes in Yemen.

In Eastern Africa, despite some improvement, the food situation of vulnerable groups remains precarious, especially in pastoral areas affected by earlier drought. The food security situation in the Sudan and South Sudan is of concern following poor harvests. 

In Southern Africa, overall crop prospects remain satisfactory despite dry spells and cyclones in some areas.

Gains in India

In Far East Asia, prospects for the 2012 wheat crop are generally favourable with output expected to reach last year’s record level due in particular to good gains in India.

In Central America, dry weather reduced plantings of the 2012 secondary maize crop in Mexico.Elsewhere, good  maize harvests are estimated despite  losses due to torrential rains during the recently concluded secondary seasons.

In South America, a prolonged dry spell affected the 2012 maize crop in Argentina and Brazil but above-average outputs are still forecast due to increased plantings.