Weather slams grain production

Global rice paddy production for 2012 is forecast to drop by 7.8 million tonnes due to lower than normal rainfall in India.

However, world output will still be slightly above levels achieved in 2011, according to the July 2012 issue of the Rice Market Monitor released by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations.

Global paddy production should reach 724.5 million tonnes (483.1 million tonnes milled), compared with the original forecast in April of 732.3 million tonnes (488.2 million tonnes milled).  The downward revision was mainly due to a 22 percent lower-than-average monsoon rainfall in India through mid-July, which is likely to reduce output in the country this season. Production forecasts were also lowered for Cambodia, Taiwan, North and South Korea and Nepal, all of which may see lower production in 2012.

In sharp contrast with trends observed in the maize and wheat markets, which have been rocked by widespread drought in the US, rice prices have remained surprisingly stable after gaining 2 percent in May. Amid abundant rice supplies and stocks , the likelihood of a strong price rebound in coming months is low, but the future of rice prices remains uncertain. Meanwhile, corn, wheat and similar grains have soared in price as the US drought maintains its grip.

'Conventional plough could contribute to famine'

Photo: Cross Slot no tillage drill

A New Zealand agricultural scientist slash machinery manufacturer claims conventional ploughing could contribute to famine because it causes high rates of carbon loss from soil.


Dr John Baker, has a MAgrSc in soil science and a PH.D in agricultural engineering, which these days are mainly deployed in the manufacture and sales of his Cross Slot no-tillage seed drills. His 'famine' claim is stretching it, and he obviously has a vested interest in this, however, he makes a valid point about carbon loss.


He says carbon is lost to the atmosphere through conventional ploughing and that studies show 15-20% of CO2 in the atmosphere comes from annual ploughing.


Vital ingredient
Carbon is a vital ingredient of soil, Baker notes. Plants that we eat all contain carbon. When they die they decompose and earthworms and other microbes take the products of decomposition, which are rich in carbon, into the soil and keep them there. Fair enough.


“When the soil is ploughed it releases much of the carbon back into the atmosphere. The long term result is a reduction in soil organic matter, which in turn leads to soil erosion, dust storms and ultimately famine,” Dr Baker says.


“Ploughing takes away the food sources of microbes that hold the soil together. Organic matter also stores water and the loss of both decreases the crop yields.”


Key-hole surgery
After 30 years of research at Massey University, Dr Baker researched and developed Cross Slot no-tillage drills which penetrate through crop residue on top of the ground and simultaneously sow seed and fertiliser in adjacent bands.


The no tillage process causes minimal or low disturbance to the soil, traps the humidity, preserves the micro-organisms and soil life and largely prevents carbon from escaping into the atmosphere. Further, by leaving the stubble and straw from the previous crop to decompose on the surface of the ground, it helps sequester new carbon into the soil. 


Food Prize
This year Dr Baker was nominated for the World Food Prize, which was announced last month at the State Department in Washington. Someone is taking his no tillage message seriously.


He points out it’s incredibly important for the soil to gain and trap carbon “if we’re to feed the 50% extra population in the world by the year 2050.”


“Only four percent of the world’s surface has arable soil and we have to learn to farm it sustainably which we simply haven’t been doing. That means no-tillage must replace ploughing as the mainstream food production technique.”


Fuel costs: a net gain
Dr Baker also claims no-tillage saves up to 80% of a farmer’s fuel costs in establishing crops and pastures. Typically no tillage drills are harder to pull through the ground and therefore require a more powerful (and less fuel efficient) tractor. However, no tillage requires fewer passes by the tractor; Baker says farmers typically use 50 to 90 liters of diesel per hectare during the multiple times required to establish a crop. By comparison no-tillage uses “10-20 liters per hectare”.


Dr Baker says that New Zealand farmers sow about one million hectares of new seeds each year. Recent Massey University research suggests that if low-disturbance no-tillage was used universally to sow these seeds it would result in about 1.5 million tonnes less CO2 discharged into the atmosphere annually.

Wanted: Drought resistant crops

With over 60% of continental US suffering drought it is perhaps no surprise Purdue University is promoting its work to find drought-resistance genes.

The search for these genes is focusing on tropical varieties of corn; the genes would be transferred to American corn varieties along with the drought tolerance they confer on plants. The desired equation is simple: maximum yield for minimum water use. As such, it is likely the most useful genes will be related to the control of transpiration -- the opening and closing of stomata on the leaf surface.

Meanwhile, the US droughts are forcing authorities to open up protected land to help farmers feed stock. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack has authority to open up land under the voluntary Conservation Reserve Programme for emergency grazing.

According to US Drought Monitor data, 88% of US corn and 87% of US soybean crops are in drought-stricken areas. Global grain prices have soared over recent weeks.

No surprises in FAO's food security summary

While international agricultural commodity markets appear to have entered calmer conditions after record highs last year, food commodity prices are anticipated to remain on a higher plateau over the next decade, underpinned by firm demand but a slowing growth in global production, according to the latest OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook.


The report suggests that in addition to population growth higher per capita incomes, urban migration and changing diets in developing countries, as well as rising requirements for biofuel feedstocks, are underpinning demand pressures. At the same time, agricultural output by traditional exporting developed countries has been slow to respond to higher prices in the last decade.


Higher demand will be met increasingly by supplies that come to market at higher cost. With farmland area expected to expand only slightly in the coming decade, additional production will need to come from increased productivity, including by reducing productivity gaps in developing countries, the report said.


The Outlook anticipates that agricultural output growth will slow to an average of 1.7 percent annually over the next 10 years, down from a trend rate of over 2 percent per year in recent decades. Higher input costs, increasing resource constraints, growing environmental pressures and the impacts of climate change will all serve to dampen supply response.


Much of the projected growth will come from developing countries, which will increasingly dominate in the production of most agricultural commodities, and also take on a more important role in commodity trade.


"Increased productivity, green-growth and more open markets will be essential if the food and nutrition requirements of future generations are to be met," said OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría. "Governments should renounce trade-distorting practices and create an enabling environment for a thriving and sustainable agriculture underpinned by improved productivity. We have highlighted many of these issues in our work on food security for the G20 and this Outlook provides further important analysis and recommendations to governments."

Global atlas to gauge farmers' potential

Jun 25, 2012 by IFPRI

The world’s population is growing, but its resources, including land and water, are finite. This means that if farmers are to feed 9 billion people by 2050—which would require them to roughly double current production—they will have to make their fields work harder without transforming forests and other precious ecosystems into additional cropland.



Researchers at IFPRI and elsewhere have already shown that farmers—including smallholder farmers in developing countries—could sustainably boost crop yields through the use of traditional and innovative technologies and practices, including water harvesting and irrigation. But researchers have yet to successfully quantify how much potential, exactly, there is on earth to increase the crop yields of major crops.

A group of researchers from the University of Nebraska and Wageningen University are setting out to determine just that through the production of an atlas. The Global Yield Gap Atlas will use map-based evidence to reveal the “gap” between the current average yields of farms and their maximum production potential. In other words, it will show the difference between what the world’s farms currently produce and what they could produce. The Atlas will also document the world’s potential to use water more efficiently.

http://bit.ly/OomoPq

Ancient Inca crop has its day

Evo Morales Ayma, President of Bolivia, will visit FAO on Monday 11 June for bilateral talks with FAO Director General José Graziano da Silva and a special session of the UN organization’s governing council focusing on Quinoa, the so-called South American “super grain.”

The United Nations has declared 2013 the International Year of Quinoa. An extremely nutritional grain-like crop with high protein and micronutrient levels, Quinoa was of major nutritional importance for pre-Columbian Andean civilizations, second only to the potato. The International Year of Quinoa aims to focus world attention on the role that the crop can play in contributing to food security, nutrition and poverty eradication.

As a crop, Quinoa is undemanding and altitude tolerant and is grown from coastal regions in Chile up to 4000m elevations in the Andes. Timing the harvest seems to be its trickiest element as timing it wrong can result in high yield losses due to shattering of the grains.

The downside of eating local

   Australian Farm Institute Executive Director Mick Keogh says the international local food movement brings the potential for a retreat from globalised agricultural markets.

   Unwittingly the local food movement also has the potential to dramatically increase agriculture’s impact on the environment, he says.

   A ‘locavore’ is defined as a person who seeks to only consume food that is grown less than 160 km away. More generally, the 2008 U.S. Farm Bill, defines local food as produced and consumed within a state, or that is consumed less than 640 km from where it is produced.

   “Irrespective of the validity of the reasons advanced for preferring local food, the movement seems to encompass a strong desire to retreat from the globalised, internationally traded food supply system,” Keogh says.

   One often-claimed attribute of local food systems that is not supported by available research is the claim that local food systems are better for the environment.

   “A UK consumer opting for the local UK dairy product would unwittingly be selecting a product that has double the energy and environmental footprint of the competing New Zealand product, despite the New Zealand product having been transported almost 18,000 kilometres,” Keogh says.

    A comparison for lamb production, he says, shows the New Zealand lamb shipped to the UK had an emission “footprint” of 688 kilograms of CO2-e per tonne of lamb compared to the UK product with an emission footprint of 2,850 kg of CO2-e.

   Keogh says a further aspect of the local food movement that is seemingly at odds with many perceptions is the implications of a ‘local food’ model for the potential of global agriculture to provide sufficient food for a larger future population.

   “It is also easy to overlook the fact that the benefits of specialisation (growing specific crops in areas where they are agronomically best suited and transporting them to distant markets), modern science and scale economies mean that the world is now consistently able to produce a surplus of food, which can be safely and efficiently delivered to any location on earth in a relatively short period of time,” he says.

   A recent estimate says for the United States to maintain current output levels for 40 major food crops and vegetables under a locavore-like production system would require an additional 24.3 million hectares of cropland, 2.45 million tonnes more fertiliser, and 22.7 million kg more chemicals.

   “The result would be a profound increase in the carbon and energy footprint of the U.S. food system, and the destruction of significant natural habitat due to land use change,” Keogh says.