New record forecast for coarse grains

Strong growth is expected for global wheat, coarse grains and rice production in 2013, according to early forecasts published in the May issue of FAO's monthly Cereals Supply and Demand Brief.

Assuming more normal weather conditions than in 2012, global wheat production in 2013 is expected to reach 695 million tonnes, 5.4 percent up from last year's harvest and just some 6 million tonnes short of the 2011 record level.

And in 2013, coarse grains production  is expected to set a new record at 1 266 million tonnes - 9.3 percent up on the previous high of 1 167 million tonnes registered in 2011.

Of this total, maize is forecast  to account for about 960 million tonnes, some 10 percent up from 2012. The bulk of the increase is expected in the United States, the world's largest producer, where maize plantings are forecast to reach their highest level since 1936. Recovery from drought in the major CIS producing countries should also contribute significantly to the record global production.

Still tentatively, FAO foresees rice production in the forthcoming  2013 season to rise to 497.7 million tonnes, 16 million tonnes more than in 2012, with particularly large increases expected in India and Indonesia.

NZ university to lead food security plan

Massey University is to help World Bank lead a plan to improve food safety worldwide.

Launched before Christmas, the Global Food Safety Partnership is a public-private partnership with the aim of increased food safety capacity.

Massey’s Professor of Agribusiness Hamish Gow (pictured), winner of a major international award for an open source food safety knowledge network, will take a leading role in the multi-agency structure.

“The goal is to build a food safety system suitable for supporting the delivery of safe, affordable food for everyone, everywhere, all of the time,” says Gow.

The partnership will utilise an open educational model that would enable individuals, firms, non-governmental organisations, governments and international agencies to collaborate.

Massey will facilitate the working groups that will provide technical input and expertise into the design of the partnership and associated programmes. Ross Davies of the School of Engineering and Advanced Technology in the College of Sciences will act as project manager for Massey’s part of the initiative.

These working groups will cover the establishment of the open source platform (or information resource), an effective communications strategy and technical aspects including training materials, quality control, service provision and delivery systems.

“We need innovative solutions to share best practice, increase adoption, build capacity, lower delivery costs and more generally improve food safety systems across the developing world,” Gow says.

“The science of food safety is already well established, what we need to do now is package that knowledge appropriately for food producers, manufacturers, retailers and distributors and consumers so it is relevant to them. It is not so much a scientific problem as a business development and community development problem.”

New Tool Checks Food Affordability

Agribusiness giant DuPont has modified the Global Food Security Index to account for the impact of changes in global food prices at a national level where price fluctuations impact most directly.

Commissioned by DuPont and developed by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the Price Adjustment Factor captures the impact of changing food prices and income growth over time. In response to the rising cost of food, mainly in June of this year, the Index recorded a slight decline in food security globally.  The interactive tool is available online at www.foodsecurityindex.eiu.com.

DuPont Executive Vice President James C. Borel says this tool will help understand the root causes of hunger. “The ramifications of this year's drought are far reaching.  Knowing where the impact is the greatest can help focus our collective efforts where they are needed most.”

The World Bank estimates that global food price spikes in 2008 pushed 44 million people below the poverty line globally, most of them in poor countries.  In the United States, almost 15 percent of households experienced food insecurity in 2011, up 11 percent before recent price jumps.

“Many factors affect food prices, from rising demand in emerging markets to abrupt changes in the weather,” said EIU Global Forecasting Director Leo Abruzzese.  “The new Price Adjustment Factor tool will assess, quarterly, the impact of price changes on a country’s ability to afford food.  High and volatile prices can impact food security by limiting consumers’ purchasing power and calorie consumption.”

Seventy eight percent of U.S. corn acres have been affected by drought; some farmers can’t afford to feed livestock and the cost of commodities is at record highs.  While this year’s drought has been devastating to farmers, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reported the 2nd largest corn crop globally, in addition to the 2nd and 3rd highest rice and soybean crops respectively.

Feed production increases

Speaking at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, in Rome, Alltech vice president Aidan Connolly, presented the results of the 2011 Alltech Feed Tonnage Survey, along with results from previous surveys, showing a steady increase in feed production year on year.



The 2011 survey, covering 128 countries, put the total feed at 873 million tonnes. The 2012 survey, due to be published soon and covering more than 130 countries, is expected to show a further increase. For 2013 however, Connolly, presenting at the IFIF-FAO joint meeting, predicted a contraction in the region of 3 – 5%, driven by the following three factors:

1. Continued global recession affecting protein consumption.
2. The conversion of large amounts of feed stocks and materials into biofuels.
3. Reduced feed supply due to a global drought, specifically in the US.

In addition, a mycotoxin survey, also carried out by Alltech, indicates that the surviving US harvest will be highly contaminated with up to 37 different mycotoxins, due to crop vulnerability from adverse weather conditions. The resulting percentage contraction in feed production will then be determined by the ability of integrated food producers, farmers and food companies to pass on the increased feed material cost to consumers, without any loss in overall consumption levels.

“We are facing into a completely new era for the agriculture industry where, for the first time in history, feed production for 2013 will be lower than for 2012, and it is clear that efficiency in converting feed into food will be more critical to food companies than ever,” said Connolly.

FAO bullish on hunger reduction

If countries step up their efforts to reduce hunger, the Millennium Development Goal of halving the proportion of hungry people by 2015 can still be reached, FAO Director-General José Graziano da Silva told the opening session of the Committee on World Food Security (CFS) today.

Graziano da Silva said that important progress has been made in cutting the number of hungry people by 132 million since 1990. The proportion of the hungry also fell in the developing world from 23.2 percent to 14.9 percent.

He expressed concern that still around 870 million people are hungry and that hunger has risen in Africa and the Near East. Progress in reducing hunger has stalled since 2007, he said.

"As we renew and increase our commitment to reach the Millennium Development Goal for hunger reduction, let's look beyond it, towards the total eradication of hunger because, when it comes to hunger, the only acceptable number is ‘zero'," Graziano da Silva said.

CFS is the foremost inclusive platform for all stakeholders to work together and recommend policies that will promote food security and nutrition for all. The inter-governmental body is open to participation by civil society, the private sector, international and regional organizations and philanthropic institutions concerned with food security and nutrition. As many as 18 government ministers are expected to attend this year's session.

Agriculture to blame for obesity too?!

Prompt action to promote "sustainable diets and food biodiversity" so as to improve the health of humans and of the planet is urged in a book just published by FAO and Bioversity International. Progressive farmers, be afraid.

Irrespective of the many successes of agriculture in the last three decades, Barbara Burlingame, Principal Officer of FAOs Nutrition and Consumer Protection Division, says food systems are not working. Never mind that the proportion of the world's population that is hungry is actually lower now; never mind that food is produced more efficiently now; and never mind that most of the problems with hunger can be sheeted back to a political (distribution) factor.

Anyway, blame modern agriculture if that's the fashion.

The book, Sustainable Diets and Biodiversity, makes the claim that while over 900 million people in the world suffer from hunger, about 1. 5 billion are overweight or obese, and an estimated two billion suffer from micronutrient malnutrition including vitamin A, iron, or iodine deficiency.

The problem of feeding the world's growing population has so far been seen largely in terms of providing sufficient quantities of food, the book points out. "But the pace of biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation, coupled with emerging health issues related to diet, make it urgent to address the quality of agriculture and food systems."

"Poor diets are linked to marked increases in non-communicable diseases such as diabetes and cardio-vascular diseases across the world." Yeah, thanks for that.

One omission of the book seems to be not placing any weight on the contribution poor personal choices make to the obesity problem; would different farming systems really make any difference in this regard? Very unlikely.

Image: Not from the book mentioned above.

Weather slams grain production

Global rice paddy production for 2012 is forecast to drop by 7.8 million tonnes due to lower than normal rainfall in India.

However, world output will still be slightly above levels achieved in 2011, according to the July 2012 issue of the Rice Market Monitor released by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations.

Global paddy production should reach 724.5 million tonnes (483.1 million tonnes milled), compared with the original forecast in April of 732.3 million tonnes (488.2 million tonnes milled).  The downward revision was mainly due to a 22 percent lower-than-average monsoon rainfall in India through mid-July, which is likely to reduce output in the country this season. Production forecasts were also lowered for Cambodia, Taiwan, North and South Korea and Nepal, all of which may see lower production in 2012.

In sharp contrast with trends observed in the maize and wheat markets, which have been rocked by widespread drought in the US, rice prices have remained surprisingly stable after gaining 2 percent in May. Amid abundant rice supplies and stocks , the likelihood of a strong price rebound in coming months is low, but the future of rice prices remains uncertain. Meanwhile, corn, wheat and similar grains have soared in price as the US drought maintains its grip.