New Tool Checks Food Affordability

Agribusiness giant DuPont has modified the Global Food Security Index to account for the impact of changes in global food prices at a national level where price fluctuations impact most directly.

Commissioned by DuPont and developed by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the Price Adjustment Factor captures the impact of changing food prices and income growth over time. In response to the rising cost of food, mainly in June of this year, the Index recorded a slight decline in food security globally.  The interactive tool is available online at www.foodsecurityindex.eiu.com.

DuPont Executive Vice President James C. Borel says this tool will help understand the root causes of hunger. “The ramifications of this year's drought are far reaching.  Knowing where the impact is the greatest can help focus our collective efforts where they are needed most.”

The World Bank estimates that global food price spikes in 2008 pushed 44 million people below the poverty line globally, most of them in poor countries.  In the United States, almost 15 percent of households experienced food insecurity in 2011, up 11 percent before recent price jumps.

“Many factors affect food prices, from rising demand in emerging markets to abrupt changes in the weather,” said EIU Global Forecasting Director Leo Abruzzese.  “The new Price Adjustment Factor tool will assess, quarterly, the impact of price changes on a country’s ability to afford food.  High and volatile prices can impact food security by limiting consumers’ purchasing power and calorie consumption.”

Seventy eight percent of U.S. corn acres have been affected by drought; some farmers can’t afford to feed livestock and the cost of commodities is at record highs.  While this year’s drought has been devastating to farmers, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reported the 2nd largest corn crop globally, in addition to the 2nd and 3rd highest rice and soybean crops respectively.

Feed production increases

Speaking at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, in Rome, Alltech vice president Aidan Connolly, presented the results of the 2011 Alltech Feed Tonnage Survey, along with results from previous surveys, showing a steady increase in feed production year on year.



The 2011 survey, covering 128 countries, put the total feed at 873 million tonnes. The 2012 survey, due to be published soon and covering more than 130 countries, is expected to show a further increase. For 2013 however, Connolly, presenting at the IFIF-FAO joint meeting, predicted a contraction in the region of 3 – 5%, driven by the following three factors:

1. Continued global recession affecting protein consumption.
2. The conversion of large amounts of feed stocks and materials into biofuels.
3. Reduced feed supply due to a global drought, specifically in the US.

In addition, a mycotoxin survey, also carried out by Alltech, indicates that the surviving US harvest will be highly contaminated with up to 37 different mycotoxins, due to crop vulnerability from adverse weather conditions. The resulting percentage contraction in feed production will then be determined by the ability of integrated food producers, farmers and food companies to pass on the increased feed material cost to consumers, without any loss in overall consumption levels.

“We are facing into a completely new era for the agriculture industry where, for the first time in history, feed production for 2013 will be lower than for 2012, and it is clear that efficiency in converting feed into food will be more critical to food companies than ever,” said Connolly.

FAO bullish on hunger reduction

If countries step up their efforts to reduce hunger, the Millennium Development Goal of halving the proportion of hungry people by 2015 can still be reached, FAO Director-General José Graziano da Silva told the opening session of the Committee on World Food Security (CFS) today.

Graziano da Silva said that important progress has been made in cutting the number of hungry people by 132 million since 1990. The proportion of the hungry also fell in the developing world from 23.2 percent to 14.9 percent.

He expressed concern that still around 870 million people are hungry and that hunger has risen in Africa and the Near East. Progress in reducing hunger has stalled since 2007, he said.

"As we renew and increase our commitment to reach the Millennium Development Goal for hunger reduction, let's look beyond it, towards the total eradication of hunger because, when it comes to hunger, the only acceptable number is ‘zero'," Graziano da Silva said.

CFS is the foremost inclusive platform for all stakeholders to work together and recommend policies that will promote food security and nutrition for all. The inter-governmental body is open to participation by civil society, the private sector, international and regional organizations and philanthropic institutions concerned with food security and nutrition. As many as 18 government ministers are expected to attend this year's session.

Agriculture to blame for obesity too?!

Prompt action to promote "sustainable diets and food biodiversity" so as to improve the health of humans and of the planet is urged in a book just published by FAO and Bioversity International. Progressive farmers, be afraid.

Irrespective of the many successes of agriculture in the last three decades, Barbara Burlingame, Principal Officer of FAOs Nutrition and Consumer Protection Division, says food systems are not working. Never mind that the proportion of the world's population that is hungry is actually lower now; never mind that food is produced more efficiently now; and never mind that most of the problems with hunger can be sheeted back to a political (distribution) factor.

Anyway, blame modern agriculture if that's the fashion.

The book, Sustainable Diets and Biodiversity, makes the claim that while over 900 million people in the world suffer from hunger, about 1. 5 billion are overweight or obese, and an estimated two billion suffer from micronutrient malnutrition including vitamin A, iron, or iodine deficiency.

The problem of feeding the world's growing population has so far been seen largely in terms of providing sufficient quantities of food, the book points out. "But the pace of biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation, coupled with emerging health issues related to diet, make it urgent to address the quality of agriculture and food systems."

"Poor diets are linked to marked increases in non-communicable diseases such as diabetes and cardio-vascular diseases across the world." Yeah, thanks for that.

One omission of the book seems to be not placing any weight on the contribution poor personal choices make to the obesity problem; would different farming systems really make any difference in this regard? Very unlikely.

Image: Not from the book mentioned above.

Weather slams grain production

Global rice paddy production for 2012 is forecast to drop by 7.8 million tonnes due to lower than normal rainfall in India.

However, world output will still be slightly above levels achieved in 2011, according to the July 2012 issue of the Rice Market Monitor released by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations.

Global paddy production should reach 724.5 million tonnes (483.1 million tonnes milled), compared with the original forecast in April of 732.3 million tonnes (488.2 million tonnes milled).  The downward revision was mainly due to a 22 percent lower-than-average monsoon rainfall in India through mid-July, which is likely to reduce output in the country this season. Production forecasts were also lowered for Cambodia, Taiwan, North and South Korea and Nepal, all of which may see lower production in 2012.

In sharp contrast with trends observed in the maize and wheat markets, which have been rocked by widespread drought in the US, rice prices have remained surprisingly stable after gaining 2 percent in May. Amid abundant rice supplies and stocks , the likelihood of a strong price rebound in coming months is low, but the future of rice prices remains uncertain. Meanwhile, corn, wheat and similar grains have soared in price as the US drought maintains its grip.

'Conventional plough could contribute to famine'

Photo: Cross Slot no tillage drill

A New Zealand agricultural scientist slash machinery manufacturer claims conventional ploughing could contribute to famine because it causes high rates of carbon loss from soil.


Dr John Baker, has a MAgrSc in soil science and a PH.D in agricultural engineering, which these days are mainly deployed in the manufacture and sales of his Cross Slot no-tillage seed drills. His 'famine' claim is stretching it, and he obviously has a vested interest in this, however, he makes a valid point about carbon loss.


He says carbon is lost to the atmosphere through conventional ploughing and that studies show 15-20% of CO2 in the atmosphere comes from annual ploughing.


Vital ingredient
Carbon is a vital ingredient of soil, Baker notes. Plants that we eat all contain carbon. When they die they decompose and earthworms and other microbes take the products of decomposition, which are rich in carbon, into the soil and keep them there. Fair enough.


“When the soil is ploughed it releases much of the carbon back into the atmosphere. The long term result is a reduction in soil organic matter, which in turn leads to soil erosion, dust storms and ultimately famine,” Dr Baker says.


“Ploughing takes away the food sources of microbes that hold the soil together. Organic matter also stores water and the loss of both decreases the crop yields.”


Key-hole surgery
After 30 years of research at Massey University, Dr Baker researched and developed Cross Slot no-tillage drills which penetrate through crop residue on top of the ground and simultaneously sow seed and fertiliser in adjacent bands.


The no tillage process causes minimal or low disturbance to the soil, traps the humidity, preserves the micro-organisms and soil life and largely prevents carbon from escaping into the atmosphere. Further, by leaving the stubble and straw from the previous crop to decompose on the surface of the ground, it helps sequester new carbon into the soil. 


Food Prize
This year Dr Baker was nominated for the World Food Prize, which was announced last month at the State Department in Washington. Someone is taking his no tillage message seriously.


He points out it’s incredibly important for the soil to gain and trap carbon “if we’re to feed the 50% extra population in the world by the year 2050.”


“Only four percent of the world’s surface has arable soil and we have to learn to farm it sustainably which we simply haven’t been doing. That means no-tillage must replace ploughing as the mainstream food production technique.”


Fuel costs: a net gain
Dr Baker also claims no-tillage saves up to 80% of a farmer’s fuel costs in establishing crops and pastures. Typically no tillage drills are harder to pull through the ground and therefore require a more powerful (and less fuel efficient) tractor. However, no tillage requires fewer passes by the tractor; Baker says farmers typically use 50 to 90 liters of diesel per hectare during the multiple times required to establish a crop. By comparison no-tillage uses “10-20 liters per hectare”.


Dr Baker says that New Zealand farmers sow about one million hectares of new seeds each year. Recent Massey University research suggests that if low-disturbance no-tillage was used universally to sow these seeds it would result in about 1.5 million tonnes less CO2 discharged into the atmosphere annually.

Wanted: Drought resistant crops

With over 60% of continental US suffering drought it is perhaps no surprise Purdue University is promoting its work to find drought-resistance genes.

The search for these genes is focusing on tropical varieties of corn; the genes would be transferred to American corn varieties along with the drought tolerance they confer on plants. The desired equation is simple: maximum yield for minimum water use. As such, it is likely the most useful genes will be related to the control of transpiration -- the opening and closing of stomata on the leaf surface.

Meanwhile, the US droughts are forcing authorities to open up protected land to help farmers feed stock. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack has authority to open up land under the voluntary Conservation Reserve Programme for emergency grazing.

According to US Drought Monitor data, 88% of US corn and 87% of US soybean crops are in drought-stricken areas. Global grain prices have soared over recent weeks.