Research group holds thin green line

The 40th anniversary of CGIAR demands recognition if only because the group is part of a dying breed.

Research into farm productivity has been starved over the last thirty years in the developed world where hunger has been far enough from our door that we've become complacent about our ability to keep growth in farm yields ahead of growth in human population.

Holding this increasingly thin green line are the likes of CGIAR (the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research). Since 1971 the collaborative research driven by this group featured heavily in the Green Revolution. For example, a 2010 Food Policy journal article estimates "about 60 per cent of the food crop area planted to improved varieties is occupied by many of the 7,250 varieties resulting from CGIAR research".

And this: a 2003 study concluded that without CGIAR's work developing countries would be producing 7-8 per cent less food and some 13-15 million more children would be malnourished.

A review of the group's contribution to farm productivity and food security can be read at http://www.cgiarfund.org/cgiarfund/cgiar_at_40. 

Collectively the developed world has dropped the ball with farm production research, with government funding in massive decline since about 1980. This short-sighted approach has caught up with us, but few have yet noticed. 

Leading research role for IFPRI

IFPRI (The International Food Policy Institute) will take a leading role in two of the new research programs currently being developed by the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR).

IFPRI will be the lead center for CGIAR Research Program 2, Policies, institutions, and markets to strengthen food security and incomes for the rural poor. This research program is designed to promote improvements in policies, institutions, and markets that will generate agricultural growth that makes the poor, especially rural women and other disadvantaged groups, better off.

CGIAR Research Program 4, Agriculture for improved nutrition and health, will be led by IFPRI in close collaboration with the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) and other CG centers and other partners. CRP 4 will work to accelerate progress in improving the nutrition and health of poor people by shaping agriculture and food systems affecting those in marginal environments and those experiencing the impacts of agriculture intensification.

Banking on Food Shortages

ANZ NZ CEO David Hisco recently told a news conference around 15 management roles would go and up to 30 back office roles would go in a restructure of one of Australasia's biggest banks. The aim is to reposition the bank to capitalize on the big growth opportunity of the moment, food production. 

"We see a real opportunity in the agri sector in Asia and India. In India there are 20 million people a year moving from one to two meals a day and they want more protein. There's less arable land and more population coming on so New Zealand is in the prime position to benefit from that over the next 20 to 30 years," Hisco said.

ANZ acknowledged the move was also aimed at catering for many farms as they got bigger and more sophisticated as they transitioned from small family farms to larger corporates.

The tragedy in Japan caused grain and livestock futures to stumble this week amid the speculative selling that comes with market uncertainty. Not surprising given that Japan is the world's largest corn buyer and imports huge volumes of pork and other produce.

The long-term trend remains though and businesses like ANZ are very clear on this - the global food crisis is bankable.

UN still on food crisis high alert

Global food prices increased for the eighth consecutive month in February, with prices of all commodity groups monitored rising again, except for sugar, FAO said this week.

FAO expects a tightening of the global cereal supply and demand balance in 2010/11. In the face of a growing demand and a decline in world cereal production in 2010, global cereal stocks this year are expected to fall sharply because of a decline in inventories of wheat and coarse grains. International cereal prices have increased sharply with export prices of major grains up at least 70 percent from February last year.

"Unexpected oil price spikes could further exacerbate an already precarious situation in food markets," said David Hallam, Director of FAO's Trade and Market Division. 

"This adds even more uncertainty concerning the price outlook just as plantings for crops in some of the major growing regions are about to start," he added.

Food Price Index

The FAO Food Price Index averaged 236 points in February, up 2.2 percent from January, the highest record in real and nominal terms, since FAO started monitoring prices in 1990. 

The Cereal Price Index, which includes prices of main food staples such as wheat, rice and maize, rose by 3.7 percent in February (254 points), the highest level since July 2008. 

The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 230 points in February, up 4 percent from January, but well below its peak in November 2007.

The FAO Oils/Fats Price Index rose marginally to 279 points in February, a level just below the peak recorded in June 2008.

The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 169 points in February, up 2 percent from January. By contrast, the FAO Sugar Price Index averaged 418 points in February, slightly below the previous month but still 16 percent higher than February 2010.

Cereal supply and demand

FAO expects winter crops in the northern hemisphere to be generally favourable and forecasts global wheat production to increase by around 3 percent in 2011.This assumes a recovery in wheat production in major producing countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States. So far, conditions of winter crops in those countries are generally favourable.

The latest estimate for the world cereal production in 2010 is 8 million tonnes more than was anticipated in December but still slightly below 2009. This month's upward revision reflects mostly higher estimates for production in Argentina, China and Ethiopia.

The forecast for world cereal utilization in 2010/11 has been revised up by 18 million tonnes since December. The bulk of the revision reflects adjustments to the feed and industrial utilization of coarse grains. Larger use of maize for ethanol production in the United States and statistical adjustments to China's historical (since 2006/07) supply and demand balance for maize are the main reasons for the revision.

Jim Rogers: Commodities still hot

Jim Rogers, author of Hot Commodities and co-founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros, was one of the first to pick the bull-run on commodities of the last few years.

This bull-run led to the 2007-08 food crisis. Prices of soft commodities are again approaching those levels, exacerbating hunger in poor countries.

Rogers says the bull-run is far from over.



See his latest interview by Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/67100110/

Strong economic case for gender equality

If women in rural areas had the same access to land, technology, financial services, education and markets as men, agricultural production could be increased and the number of hungry people reduced by 100-150 million, FAO said today in its 2010-11 edition of The State of Food and Agriculture report.




Yields on plots managed by women are lower than those managed by men, the report said. But this is not because women are worse farmers than men. They simply do not have the same access to inputs. If they did, their yields would go up, they would produce more and overall agricultural production would increase, the report said.  

"The report makes a powerful business case for promoting gender equality in agriculture," said FAO Director-General Jacques Diouf. 

"Gender equality is not just a lofty ideal, it is also crucial for agricultural development and food security. We must promote gender equality and empower women in agriculture to win, sustainably, the fight against hunger and extreme poverty," he added. 

Closing yield gaps reaps gains for all
Just giving women the same access as men to agricultural resources could increase production on women's farms in developing countries by 20 to 30 percent. This could raise total agricultural production in developing countries by 2.5 to 4 percent, which could in turn reduce the number of hungry people in the world by 12 to 17 percent, or 100 to 150 million people. An estimated 925 million people in the world were undernourished in 2010, of which 906 million live in developing countries. 

"We must eliminate all forms of discrimination against women, ensure that access to resources is more equal and that agricultural policies and programmes are gender-aware, and make women's voices heard in decision-making at all levels. Women must be seen as equal partners in sustainable development," Diouf said. 



Recommended reading: Women in Agriculture - Closing the gender gap for development. Published by the FAO.

A clear roadmap to success

How refreshing to read a report not bogged down in idealogical dogma.

Too often forums about agricultural development and food security are captured by agendas. The old organic vs biotech debate is the obvious example. It long ago became boring and unhelpful.

The goal is the end of hunger, the elimination of needless human suffering, no more starving children. The roadmap to such an end must be clear of obstructive arguments about whose dogma is best.

Recommended reading, Realizing a New Vision for Agriculture: A roadmap for stakeholders, by the World Economic Forum.

http://www3.weforum.org/docs/IP/AM11/CO/WEF_AgricultureNewVision_Roadmap_2011.pdf