Go with your gut says researcher

Research shows intuition is critical in farmers' decision making, according to Dr Peter Nuthall of Lincoln University, New Zealand.

Dr Nuthall, a long-time researcher in farm management at the University, surveyed a number of successful farmers to discover how they made their farming decisions. He was intrigued when his research showed that the famers he studied made grazing decisions using their own mental processes rather than formal analytical tools. This was despite their being a number of resources available to help them with this.

Dr Nuthall found that there was a variety of intuitive skills used by farmers to make these decisions but even in this age of computers, and with programs available, they seldom employed formal systems for this task. Instead, they developed mental ‘expert systems’ to make their feed management decisions.  The term ‘expert system’ refers to a branch of Artificial Intelligence in which a computer program attempts to mimic an expert.

“Each farm and farmer was unique and this has made it hard for programmers to develop systems suitable for many farmers,” said Dr Nuthall.

In New Zealand, Australia, and many other countries, a large percentage of farmers earn their income through grazing animals on pastures of various types, both native and introduced.

In other than simple herding systems, successful grazing management is often complex with fine lines between the achievement of low and high output. “However, doing the right thing at the right time leads to higher profit,” said Dr Nuthall.

“An exciting find from the research was that intuitive skills were not something some people have and others don’t. I discovered that intuition has a structure and can be improved with practice using various review and mentoring systems. For this to work the mentors must be trusted people because it is necessary to consider every last detail about the farms and farming systems, including confidential material, as all aspects have an influence in making the correct decision.

“What the farmers are doing is building up their own personalised intuitive expert system,” said Dr Nuthall.

Intuition works through careful and regular observation of all critical factors both on and off the farm. Pattern matching then comes into play through the brain searching experience to come up with ‘patterns’,  the current problem and a successful decision. This ultimately leads to greater farm profits.   

“There is also evidence from around the world that variations in profit occur from different farmers’ managerial ability, despite using the same basic animal production systems in the same environment.

“Ultimately efficient grazing is often important to national income,” said Dr Nuthall.

For New Zealand, grazing-based export income was 36.9% of total exports in 2009, with  all primary production being 55.9% of the total exports of NZ$36.9 billion.

“In developing countries primary production exports are often even more important,” said Dr Nuthall 

Prospect of Dust Bowl 2 stalks America

American Geosciences Institute’s magazine Earth says prospects for cattle ranchers and farmers in the American Southwest appear grim.

Researchers predict that over the next two or three decades the area from West Texas to New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado and on into Southern California, Nevada and Utah will transition to a climate that may make the 1930s Dust Bowl seem mild and brief.

The less than rosy forecast comes at a time when the region is already experiencing giant dust storms in Arizona, and Texas is in the grip of an extreme, three-year drought. Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah and other states are also experiencing drought conditions.

The 1930s Dust Bowl saw more than 20 million hectares of farmland lost soil to airborne dust.

The researchers say the region’s problem now is that rising temperatures will contribute directly and indirectly to there being more dust in the air. Then, persistent droughts, increasingly violent and variable weather patterns, urban and suburban development and even off-road recreational vehicle usage threaten to shroud the West in dust.