Global rice paddy production for 2012 is forecast to drop by 7.8 million tonnes due to lower than normal rainfall in India.
However, world output will still be slightly above levels achieved in 2011, according to the July 2012 issue of the Rice Market Monitor released by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations.
Global paddy production should reach 724.5 million tonnes (483.1 million tonnes milled), compared with the original forecast in April of 732.3 million tonnes (488.2 million tonnes milled). The downward revision was mainly due to a 22 percent lower-than-average monsoon rainfall in India through mid-July, which is likely to reduce output in the country this season. Production forecasts were also lowered for Cambodia, Taiwan, North and South Korea and Nepal, all of which may see lower production in 2012.
In sharp contrast with trends observed in the maize and wheat markets, which have been rocked by widespread drought in the US, rice prices have remained surprisingly stable after gaining 2 percent in May. Amid abundant rice supplies and stocks , the likelihood of a strong price rebound in coming months is low, but the future of rice prices remains uncertain. Meanwhile, corn, wheat and similar grains have soared in price as the US drought maintains its grip.
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